The British press has never really been one to pass on sensationalizing a news story on religion, and yesterday's BBC headline that proclaimed "Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says," is no exception.
From the article:
The [research] team's mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.
The result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.
The team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.
That's right, all you St. Patrick's Day revelers: the country whose favorite adopted son you toasted to last week is about to give its rich, religious heritage the boot.
Or is it?
In late 2009, a poll commissioned by The Iona Institute found that even amid the economic recession and after the devasting Ryan Report that detailed the extent of the clergy sex abuse scandal in Irish Catholic institutions, church attendance in the country was up. Nearly two-thirds of the population said they attended church at least monthly -- an ever higher percentage than Gallup found among Americans that same year. Likewise, church attendance in Ireland wasn't limited to the older, more traditional generations: Nearly a third (31 percent) of Irish young adults age 18-24 said they attend church weekly, and another 22 percent said they go at least once a month, for a total of 53 percent going at least once a month. That's far above American Millennials' Sunday habits -- by way of quick comparison, when a Knights of Columbus-Marist poll asked Americans age 18-29 how often they attended religious services, 33 percent said at least once a month. Around the same time, another Irish poll found that after family and friends, the Catholic Church leads the pack in terms of organizations people turn to for emotional comfort and support.
So how did these mathematical-turned-social science researchers come to their conclusion? By comparing religion's decline in certain countries to the slow extinction of lesser-spoken world languages. At the heart of that research model, the BBC reports, "is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the 'utility' of speaking one instead of another."
"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility," said one of the researchers.
"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there's some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not."
Or, as the paper states, before continuing on with a mind-boggling spread of formulas, graphs and math-speak:
We assume the attractiveness of a group increases with the number of members, which is consistent with research on social conformity. We further assume that attractiveness also increases with the perceived utility of the group, a quantity encompassing many factors including the social, economic, political and security benefits derived from membership as well as spiritual or moral consonance with a group.
(In case you're curious, here's the formula for "a simple model of the dynamics of conversion":
Quick, someone let Augustine know!)
But is attraction to religious belief and practice solely based on numbers? On "utlitity"? Who signs up for RCIA out of concern for popularity, or convenience, or because he heard that thousands of other non-Catholics were about to take the plunge? What about the "creative minority"? What about the vibrant faith communities in regions where Christianity is not only a minority, but is harshly persecuted? Not even the study authors say that theirs is a conclusive explanation of why, when it comes to matters of religion, humans act the way they do.
"Obviously we don't really believe this is the network structure of a modern society, where each person is influenced equally by all the other people in society," one of them told the BBC.
Well, all right then.
First Things' Joe Carter poses an amusing hypothetical:
What is most interesting is that no one seems to have asked the obvious question: If religion goes extinct in societies where non-religious affiliation is more socially useful than religious affiliation, wouldn’t it also follow that religion would reach a saturation point in societies where religious affiliation is more socially useful than non-religious affiliation?
Can you imagine the panic that would result from a conclusive mathematical model that predicted America would soon be 100% religious?
-- Elizabeth Hansen