Election Day is nigh and prognostications are readily available. Predictably, Republicans are rearing to paint the town red, while Democrats are doing their best to avoid feeling blue. While some are anticipating a monsoon, and others see more of a “meh,” many signs report to a historic outcome.
Unsurprisingly, the two parties have very different visions of what the world will look like on November 3rd. Appearing on the Sunday shows, both chairmen predicted victory for their side. DNC chief Tim Kaine said of keeping majorities in both the House and the Senate: “We’ve got work to do, but we think we can do it.” RNC head Michael Steele offered a different opinion, foretelling of an “unprecedented wave” that would sweep Republicans into control of both houses as well as state legislatures.
But what do the odds makers have to say?
Irish bookies “Paddy Power” put the odds on Republican dominance in the House, listing the GOP as “hot favorites” with odds of 1-33. It’s a different story in the Senate, where Republicans are 11-4 underdogs.
Part of the issue is that many Senate races are wildly unpredictable. Both the Cook Political Report and Real Clear Politics list 8 seats as toss-ups. It’s anybody’s guess who will come out on top. Republicans will likely need 7 of those 8 to gain control of the upper chamber.
Among those 8 toss-ups is the hotly contested Nevada race between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican challenger Sharron Angle. It is one of many races that could turn Capitol Hill upside down.
Simply put, according to Politico, if Reid loses “all hell will break loose on the leadership front.” And it’s not just in the Senate. Experts predict that if Democrats lose the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi will choose to step down and retire, paving the way for another mini-drama. If the Democrats manage to maintain control, some believe that she could still be in trouble. A handful of Congressional Democrats have said they wouldn’t vote for her as Speaker, several others hinted as much. What will end up happening remains a mystery. And who her successor would be is no more certain. Experts predict that the larger the loss for the Democrats, the larger the battle over who should lead the party in the House.
Some of the more brave of the pundit class would argue that the House is already a foregone conclusion. Consider that with 218 seats as the magic number for control of the chamber, Real Clear Politics already has the Republicans with 222 seats, a pickup of 44, let alone the 36 seats that are listed as toss-ups. But nothing is certain in politics.
That having been said, some Democrats are already revving up the rhetoric about why they lost. The “excuse,” as Politico calls it, being pointed to by both the President and Vice President (among others) is that the “conservatives bought their way to power with a flood of spending by outside groups.” The Vice President was “amazed” by the numbers. And, in what Politico reporter Jonathan Martin labels as a “sunny retelling of recent political history,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that “everything was going great and all of a sudden secret money from God knows where – because they won’t disclose it – is pouring in.”
The article admits that while there is some truth to the statement, this is not “clear-cut”:
The DNC and the party’s two congressional committees have outraised their GOP counterparts and airing millions of dollar worth of TV ads. Further, it’s AFSCME [a union], not one of the new conservative groups, that is spending the most money of any outside group this election, dropping $87.5 million to help Democrats. Other unions are also spending tens of millions on the campaign.
For all that, spending by outside groups—not affiliated with the candidates or parties—is only expected by experts to be about 10 percent of the total money spent.
As is arguably true with any election, the outcome will ultimately depend on two things: turnout and independents.
As for turnout, party bosses for both sides of the aisle are seeing encouraging trends in the early voting data. Republicans and Democrats alike are convinced they’re doing better than normal given the particulars. But as some point out, “history won’t be much of a guide.” As George Mason University professor Michael McDonald put it, “we are in uncharted territory.”
The most recent data on independents, however, is in some cases simply stunning, and may end up being the deciding factor. In the final pre-election Battleground Poll, Republicans have a significant advantage, polling 14 points ahead of Democrats among independent voters.
To be clear, the independents are not swooning over Republicans – unsurprising given their overwhelming and not-so-distant unpopularity in 2006 and 2008. They see them as equals to their Democrat counterparts when it comes to solving the nation’s problems, but they seem to prefer them nonetheless. In fact, among voters who view both parties unfavorably, Republicans have a whopping 22-point advantage.
If the numbers are right, the answer to the question why may be President Obama himself.
When pollsters asked Americans why the country was heading in the wrong direction, they got a plethora of answers. 2 percent identified the wars in the Middle East. 8 percent put the blame on Congress. 7 percent put the blame on spending. 1 percent thought Republicans were guilty, while 5 percent eyed the Democrats. 2 percent said health care. Surprisingly, only 6 percent said jobs, arguably the cornerstone issue for the election. The largest, specific answer was “President Barack Obama” with 21 percent (only “other” scored higher).
Similarly concerning for the White House was the President’s comparison with congressional Democrats. When given a choice between congressional Democrats and congressional Republicans, and asked who can best create jobs, Americans were split 45-45. Independents tended to side with Democrats, giving them a 44-38 advantage on the same question. However, when given the choice of President Obama and congressional Republicans, independents sided with the Republicans to the tune of 50-26. Americans favored Republicans too by a margin of 50-39.
***
In 1994, the Republicans gained 54 House seats in what is still referred to as a historic midterm election. In 2010, conservative estimations already show 40 plus pickups for the GOP. Another 34 Democrat-held seats are “toss-ups” and still another 27 Democratic seats lean blue. That means that Republicans could reasonably gain anywhere from 0-118 seats (143 seats if you roll in all of the “likely” Democrat races). Even half that number would be historic. But it’s not over until it’s over.
So, as you prepare to weep or rejoice, hold off on the Bob Dylan, because while the times may very well be a changing, a lot can happen in 8 days.
- Matthew St. John
Comments